Fantasy football ADP trends: James Cook and Jahmyr Gibbs flying up draft boards ·

19 Jun 2024, 00:00

Welcome back to another season of fantasy football!!

Did you miss it? I know I did; but now we are just a few short weeks away from the 2023 season kicking off. Which means we all have our fantasy drafts coming up and a lot to cover… so let’s get to it.

Over the next few weeks I’m going to try and prepare you for draft day by giving you the players I see moving up draft boards — as well as the ones sinking down. So you’ll know the right time to make that selection when you’re on the clock. I’ve been drafting for well over two months and have a good feel for the board, I plan on passing that information on to you.

I also, as in past years, will be breaking down actual draft boards that have been completed over at the National Fantasy Football Championships (NFFC).

Before we jump into ADP risers and fallers, a quick overview of the board as it stands right now.

The first two rounds are pretty set in stone

It’s filled with all the elite running backs and wide receivers we know and love, along with the yearly king of tight ends in Travis Kelce (a mid first round staple) as well as the three elite QBs in Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts — who rarely ever make it out of the 2nd round. Keep in mind, my articles and ADPs are more tailored to NFFC scoring — 6 point passing and full 1 point PPR. If you’re in a 4 point passing TD league, the elite QBs might not go this high.

The next several are not

After the first 25-30 elite players come off the board this season, drafts really get interesting. Unlike any season I’ve seen in a long time, I’ll see a player go late in the 3rd round one night and then go late 5th the following. When the 3rd/4th round comes around, if you want your particular guy, you’re going to have to go and get him because he can come off the board at any pick.

This year is the Return of the Quarterback

Drafters have fallen back in love with the Elite QB and gone are the days of pushing them down the board and forgetting about them. We now live in a fantasy world where quarterbacks are people too!! And I’m here for it. It used to make me cringe hearing the “it doesn’t matter who you draft at QB” crowd for the few years that was a trend. Fantasy drafters learned the hard way last year how important the big-time elite QB was on a weekly basis. In drafts this season there is an “elite 8” on most people’s draft boards — QBs we all want to get our hands on in the first six rounds of drafts; I personally like to include QB9 Deshaun Watson as part of the cool kids group.

NFFC's "Elite 8" Quarterbacks

Rank	Team	ADP	Min Pick	Max Pick
1	KC	15.39	1	26
2	BUF	20.72	3	31
3	PHI	21.15	1	35
4	CIN	36.87	4	61
5	BAL	39.25	6	55
6	LAC	39.6	5	60
7	CHI	48.92	8	80
8	JAX	51.95	7	87

There is no real movement at the QB position on boards the last month other than a one round dip on the Joe Burrow scare last month, which has now returned to normal. The one QB to keep an eye on, though, is newly announced starter Anthony Richardson of the Colts. His ADP (average draft position) was 150 over the last month but I can see him making his way into the 110-125 range shortly. We all love a mobile QB who can run wild and that’s what Richardson brings to the table.

The running back position is the toughest to get a handle on this draft season

Holdouts, injuries, the lingering free agents on the street waiting to blow up backfields — they all contribute to what has been the trickiest position to strategize for months. The hottest names on the board are James Cook — who has seen his price go from being an 8th/9th round pick in June to a now 6th and even sometimes 5th round pick. Jahmyr Gibbs has moved himself into the middle of the third round (ADP 31) this past week from late round 4 last month as camp reports and video clips emerge of the rookie running back treating linebackers like your Uncle Frank at the family BBQ after he claims he’s still got it from his high school days back in the 70s. Gibbs could be a PPR dream and approach 70+ receptions.

Alvin Kamara has seen his stock rise a full round (89 to 76 ADP) after his suspension, which many believed could be as many as six games, was cut in half to only three. That actually put Kamara back into my draft plans as a stash RB3 — if I can get him in the 8th round and let him sit there until Week 4 when I’m ready to Flex him. Or I can use him as my possible RB2 on wide receiver heavy builds. Don’t be scared to play the long game, folks.

I wanted to touch on the Bears backfield here, as it’s been one of the more interesting ones to try and figure out all offseason.

I haven’t left many drafts this summer without one, if not two, of these Bears running backs for my bench depth. Khalil Herbert has moved up two rounds since his big first preseason performance and long TD to 89th overall from a previous ADP of 109. He’s not the only Bears RB on the move, though, as rookie Roschon Johnson — who jumped off the screen to me — has steamed up to 127 overall from a previous ADP of 148. With beat reports of Johnson being rewarded with some first team reps now in practice, you can see that number possibly moving up — or at least holding steady. I love the idea of taking Herbert in Round 9 as my RB3 and Johnson as my stash RB4/5 a few rounds later. I think Herbert is the main back early but by the time mid-season hits, Johnson can be one of those rookies who takes over and becomes a league winning type RB. It looks as if D’Onta Foreman might be the odd man out of this trio.

Lastly, a couple names you can expect to see move up boards in the upcoming weeks are: Javonte Williams, J.K Dobbins and possibly Dalvin Cook. I could see Williams and Dobbins living in the 5th rounds on draft days.

The preferred style of drafting, from what I have seen all summer, is to wait on running back because of the depth it provides and attack it from rounds 5-8. I’m not so sure that’s the best way to approach your drafts but we now live in a “zero RB” world and people are getting brainwashed LOL (Ed. note: Chris Vaccaro invented zero RB. For real).

Let’s talk wide receivers

Ah yes, everyone’s favorite position to draft. It just makes you feel warm and cuddly when you start your drafts with three or four wide receivers in a row, doesn’t it? This year will be no different. WR goes fast and furious early on, with drafters pushing RB to the mid rounds, and just like last year rounds 3 and 4 are a trip down the WR aisle, like the candy and cookie ones at your local supermarket. (Ed. note: We’re not sure Chris Vaccaro has ever been to an actual supermarket).

Calvin Ridley leads off the position and players are climbing over each other in drafts like parents trying to grab the last doll on the shelf at Christmas time to acquire his rights. Ridley is coming off the suspension and had early drafters in peril not knowing what to expect him to look like. We had him tagged as a mid 4th round draft pick a few months back — around pick 45. Since then, highlight reel after highlight reel has been enough for the high stakes crowd to believe Ridley is still the same talent he was when we last saw him on the field. Now pair him with a young superstar QB in Trevor Lawerence? We’ve seen his ADP shoot up to 25 overall and he routinely finds himself in the late 2nd round in some instances. Starting your draft with Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase and coming back with Calvin Ridley has the heavy WR build crowd salivating at the mouth.

George Pickens is on the rise, as the athletic freak in his second year looks to make a giant leap to elite wide receiver and has the tools to do so. Pickens has seen his ADP go from 80-ish last month to a 6th round price of 66 overall…and climbing.

Gabe Davis is starting to see players buy back in on him after letting people down with his 3rd round cost last season and failing to live up to that selection. With reports of him fighting through a high ankle sprain for most of 2022 and having of the NFL’s best QBs in the league at the helm — as well as those early DeAndre Hopkins signing rumors gone — Davis has seen a two round jump all the way up to 73rd overall from 90 overall last month.

A couple names I expect to see keep rising up the boards the next couple weeks include Zay Flowers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Skyy Moore. There are a lot of quality wide receiver flex plays in rounds 7-9 this year if you dare to be brave and go away from the zero RB movement.

The forgotten tight end position

Everyone hates TE but it usually is one of the biggest difference makers on fantasy teams when you look up in December. It always looks deep but by mid October we are all left shaking our heads and wondering why we just didn’t draft Travis Kelce as he pummels our fantasy teams into the ground.

The oft-injured Darren Waller was being discounted on draft boards last month but not anymore, as he has gone from TE7 (ADP 71) to now coming off the board as TE4 with a late 5th round price of ADP 56. Camp reports since day one of a fully healthy Waller as Daniel Jones’ top target have drafters thinking Waller could be the answer at the tight end position to give Kelce a run for his TE1 money.

A couple rookies close out this ADP article and we don’t usually see this much steam and glowing reports from rookie tight ends, but Dalton Kincaid and Sam LaPorta are built differently. Kincaid is flying up boards all the way to TE10 and a four round jump from ADP 152 to 117. Drafters expect him to hit the ground running and be a major contributor in this offense right from the jump. For those of you who watched him at Utah, you know why.

Sam LaPorta has seen a two and sometimes three round jump as he is already running with the first team offense in camp and looks as if he has a great shot to be the second option in the target tree as Jameson Williams starts the season suspended for six games. If LaPorta gets off to a great start and takes advantage of his early season opportunity he will blow away his ADP this season.

Hope you enjoyed the article, I’ll be back next week taking you on a journey around a high stakes draft board and giving you some strategy advice.I’ll see you then (or before that if you swing by the NFFC lobby!)

(Top photo: Amy Lemus/NurPhoto via Getty Images; gif via GIPHY)

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Fantasy football ADP trends: James Cook and Jahmyr Gibbs flying up draft boards