Last year at the trade deadline, Edmonton Oilers general manager Ken Holland made a huge deal to acquire defenceman Mattias Ekholm.
The club surrendered several valuable assets in a deal that had an immediate and profound impact. Can this team do it again?
There are several factors in play, including possible assets out, cap worries and a changing of the guard in management.
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Constructing another Ekholm trade
The Oilers acquired a top-flight defenceman in Ekholm, with term left (UFA in summer 2026) on his deal.
He can play a feature role on an NHL team, and in the last five seasons is averaging nine goals and 36 points per 82 games. Puck IQ has him playing 28 percent of his overall minutes versus elites in 2023-24, but Ekholm is capable of playing more based on his past and current deployment in Edmonton.
The asset cost was dear. Puck-moving defender Tyson Barrie was surrendered despite being part of a historically brilliant power play. Top power-forward prospect Reid Schaefer and Edmonton’s 2023 first-round selection (used on quality prospect Tanner Molendyk) and a 2024 fourth-round selection were surrendered by Edmonton in exchange for the veteran defenceman.
Final tally: A productive and useful NHL defenceman in Barrie; two quality prospects in Schaefer and the first-round selection; a depth choice (2024 fourth-round pick).
Do the Oilers have enough to make that happen again?
Edmonton’s first-round picks in 2024 and 2025 are still among the team’s current assets. A fourth-rounder is available (2025).
A player of Barrie’s quality might be more difficult to deal but names like Warren Foegele and Brett Kulak might be in play.
It’s likely a big trade like the Ekholm deal would require one of Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg, two prominent young players who have spent time with the big club in the last couple of seasons.
Holland has the assets to make a similar deal at this year’s deadline.
Cap worries
The new general manager is going to need value contracts.
Edmonton has several players making $1.5 million or less this season and are signed for next season. A few are RFAs but shouldn’t break the bank with new deals.
The top end of the Edmonton roster (Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse, Mattias Ekholm, Zach Hyman, Evander Kane, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins) is signed for next year. Those seven men own a combined cap hit of $52 million, or 59 percent of the projected 2024-25 cap.
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This team needs as many contracts under $1.5 million as possible next season. Here’s the current list.
| Player | 2023-24 Cap | 2024-25 Cap |
|---|---|---|
$1 million | UFA | |
$925,000 | RFA | |
$900,000 | $900,000 | |
$874,125 | RFA | |
$863,333 | RFA | |
$807,500 | RFA | |
$775,000 | UFA | |
$775,000 | UFA | |
$775,000 | UFA | |
$775,000 | $775,000 | |
$775,000 | $775,000 | |
$775,000 | $775,000 |
Most of these names are either veteran bottom-six forwards (Mattias Janmark, Derek Ryan, Sam Gagner, Adam Erne) or AHL vets waiting for recall (Lane Pederson, Drake Caggiula). The organization will have several of these player types next season, possibly with the same names returning.
Connor Brown is in a class by himself and if he returns next season it will be at a significantly higher cap hit. More on his bonus money and the impact on the 2024-25 cap, in a minute.
The group that is most important includes men who are young and (hopefully) on the upswing.
The lifeblood of an NHL team is the infusion of youth. The kids can climb the depth chart and solve problems for five seasons or more. Holloway and Broberg lead the way here, with James Hamblin, Raphael Lavoie and Ben Gleason also in the picture at this time.
Bubbling under, and possibly in the mix for NHL playing time in 2024, are a rather large group of AHL hopefuls led by 2021 first-round selection Xavier Bourgault.
| Player | 2024-25 Cap | AHL Pts-Game | AHL Save Pct |
|---|---|---|---|
Xavier Bourgault | $925,000 | 0.47 | |
Tyler Tullio | $823,000 | 1 | |
Max Wanner | $828,333 | 0.12 | |
Olivier Rodrigue | RFA | 0.935 |
Olivier Rodrigue is the most promising name on the list based on current 2023-24 statistics. If the Oilers can re-sign him for under $1 million, the club could have a goalie tandem for around $3.5 million one year from now.
This assumes a buyout for struggling veteran goaltender Jack Campbell. A buyout would save $3.9 million next year, reducing the cap impact to $1.1 million for Campbell. If Edmonton can be all-in on the goalies at under $5 million, it would be a short-term victory. The length of Campbell’s buyout (six long years!) makes the idea unpalatable.
Edmonton management could make the big trade of 2024 with a cap dump of Campbell, but it would severely limit the ability to add useful pieces for the playoff run.
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New management
One of the key decisions for CEO Jeff Jackson involves going all-in at the deadline. There’s a new general manager to be named after the playoffs, and that individual will want to make over the team as he sees fit.
Current management has spent to the cap, the roster has many long-term deals with no-movement clauses, and many of the draft picks and prospects are gone.
This isn’t a team with a strong prospect pipeline at this time.
Trading Broberg, Holloway and the 2024 first-round pick would set the team back even more in this area. It would put enormous pressure on the new general manager to procure multiple talents at less than a $1.5 million annual cap hit.
It’s a difficult decision for Jackson. He’ll have owner Daryl Katz pushing all-in, Holland wanting to make deals to get this roster to a championship and a fan base bordering on frenzy.
Yet, the new GM will need room to wheel. He needs young players pushing. If Holloway and Broberg go via trade, can Lavoie or Bourgault step in next fall?
Answering the question
The Oilers have the assets to make a trade. In fact, it’s possible to make a strong deal without folding Campbell’s contract into the trade.
If Holland is free to deal the 2024 first-round selection, plus Broberg and Holloway, then the additional trade piece could be a productive player (as Barrie was at the 2023 deadline).
Holland may look to acquire a player under contract for next season, thereby giving his replacement another piece moving forward. Candidates include:
• Calgary Flames RH defenceman Chris Tanev. He took a big hit on Monday night versus the Colorado Avalanche, but if healthy represents a perfect fit on the top pairing for Edmonton. Tanev’s cap hit is $4.5 million, so a deal would require retention and or a veteran from Edmonton (Kulak, Cody Ceci) going the other way.
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• Philadelphia Flyers RH defenceman Sean Walker. He has a more attractive cap hit ($2.65 million) but owns a more offensive playing style than Tanev.
• Detroit Red Wings goaltender James Reimer. The veteran is enjoying a strong season and would easily fit ($1.5 million) under the cap.
• Calgary Flames goaltender Dan Vladar. He has another year left on his deal ($2.2 million) and it would take some tweaking to get his cap hit on the roster. Vladar would be a solid solution, despite current struggles.
• Nashville Predators goaltender Juuse Saros. This is an extreme long shot, but it does fit with Holland’s career tendencies. Saros owns a .924 save percentage at five-on-five this season, and backup Kevin Lankanen sits at .929. If the Predators are entertaining a deal for Saros, it would likely be public soon and interest would be high. The Oilers would need to include Campbell and a boatload of young plug-and-play youngsters, plus the 2024 first-round selection.
Does Holland have the assets? Incredibly, the answer is yes. Should the Oilers make a big deal for Tanev or Saros?
That’s the biggest question on the agenda for this Oilers team. The cap hit for the “Big Seven” plus a Campbell buyout and Brown’s bonus would be around 67 percent of the total cap. It would mean that 16 (or fewer) players need to be signed with approximately $29 million to spend. Add in contracts from Ceci, Kulak, Evan Bouchard, Stuart Skinner and Ryan McLeod, plus extensions for Holloway, Broberg and Foegele, and the new manager may have as much as 89 percent of his overall cap already spent.
That could leave less than $10 million for eight or fewer players if the club retains Broberg and Holloway.
Borrowing from the future for today, with no Stanley Cup assured, is a dangerous game.
Making a trade to send away Campbell’s contract would benefit next summer’s cap, but compromise the deadline.
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Holding on to all of the draft and prospect assets would give the new general manager his best chance to wheel in the early stages of his time in the role.
Katz is an aggressive owner, Jackson has matched him during his brief time in the CEO chair and Holland went all-in last year and is looking at the final deadline of his time as Edmonton general manager.
This appears to be a perfect storm. Expect the Oilers to make a loud noise between now and the trade deadline.
Again.
(Photo of Philip Broberg: Perry Nelson / USA Today)
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