Q: Tyler Boyd or Courtland Sutton and how should we go about making these tough decisions? -Anonymous U.
Usually, when making start-sits, I’m looking for access to the more prolific offense so it’d be Boyd over Sutton since these offenses are night and day; Bengals (26.5 points per game, 271.3 passing yards per game), Broncos (14.7 points per game, 223.8 passing yards per game).
In this case, however, I’m not so sure. I’m actually really glad this came up since the decision-making process is more important than the outcome anyway. I’ll have to oversimplify a bit, but stats become more vulnerable to splits as we approach the stretch run in the football season. Sometimes these generalizations are misinterpretations and can mislead fantasy players; the Tennessee Titans defense is one of my favorite examples of this.
By any metric, the Tennessee rush defense is phenomenal: first in rush DVOA (-31.2 percent), adjusted line yards (3.45), rushing yards allowed per game (82.2), and rushing TDs allowed (two). That ends up creating what’s been deemed a pass funnel; in other words, a situation where opposing offenses have to abandon the run the pass but here lies the rub.
The Tennessee pass defense faces the brunt of the hammer stroke so of course some stats will end up compiling: 26 completions allowed per game, 266.8 passing yards allowed per game, and 18 passing TDs are all in the bottom three. However, some of the underlying stats might suggest targeting Tennessee through the air as a spot might be a mistake. On the season, the Titans' pass defense stats are all average or better: 2.5 percent defensive pass DVOA (13th), -0.02 defensive EPA/dropback (13th), 91.0 opposing passer rating (16th), 65.5 percent completion percentage (15th), 24 sacks (14th), and most importantly 35.7 percent pressure rate (seventh). The Titans run a ton of two-high zone coverage, but also create havoc at the point of attack. I think that’s the worst case for a Bengals blowup. Plus, JaMarr Chase is possibly returning to take some looks away from Boyd.
Give me Sutton and his crazy usage. Since Jerry Jeudy went down, Sutton is getting a WR1 workload; nine targets per game for 100.5 air yards is all we can ask for as far as opportunity goes.
(Photo: Kareem Elgazzar / USA Today)
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